Election Update: Japan’s Ruling Party Looks Likely to Lose Majority and finds out karma is a bitch.

As the ballots trickle in from Japan’s general election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) —which is infamously neither liberal nor democratic–is having the kind of night you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. The party has ruled Japan, almost uninterrupted since 1955. They briefly lost power in 1993 and were soundly trounced by the Democratic Party of Japan (the predecessor to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan) in 2009 before regaining power in 2012.

Some major power brokers in the party took a hit tonight. Amari Akira, a former LDP Secretary-General, has been ceremoniously dethroned in Kanagawa’s 20th district, where Otsuka Sayuri of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) danced on the grave of his political career. And it gets worse if you’re a member of the LDP Abe faction. Tokyo, the LDP’s once-proud bastion, is now slipping into opposition hands like it’s hosting a fire sale. Shimomura Hakubun, former education minister with rumored ties to yakuza associates, and Marukawa Tamayo, both with enough scandal under their belts to merit Netflix miniseries, are expected to lose their seats to CDP candidates.

The LDP’s Titanic? Let’s hope so. Prime Minister Ishiba, decided not to provide life boats to politicians caught in the slush fund scandal (see below), many who belonged to the faction of his lifelong enemy, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (RIP). They didn’t get official LDP support in the election nor did they get a chance to survive political death by being put on the proportional representation ballot either.

By 8 PM, the polls had closed, and the predictions were grim. Exit polls suggest the LDP is unlikely to retain its majority, wobbling somewhere between 153 and 219 seats, far short of the necessary 233. Meanwhile, the CDP is looking chipper, poised to nab between 128 and 191 seats—likely on the back of voter fury over a cost-of-living crisis that even the most oblivious politicians can’t ignore. Komeito, the LDP’s wingman in governing Japan, might also lose seats, leaving the coalition frantically paddling just to stay afloat. They are suffering from the recent death of their defacto leader, Soka Gakkai guru Daisaku Ikeda, who may have actually been dead for years.

What does this all mean? If the LDP loses its majority, we might actually see a Japan where someone other than a scandal-saddled, cronyism-filled, sleepwalking juggernaut runs the show. Imagine that. It could mean real checks on government power, maybe even policies that acknowledge the existence of normal people. But more than anything, it would mean a well-deserved comeuppance for a party that’s been weighed down by bad press, worse policies, and ties to organizations that should probably come with a disclaimer.

Now for some fun background:
The “slush fund scandal” was primarily composed of LDP members—most notably from the Abe Shinzo faction—being caught with their hands deep in the political cookie jar. Money flowed in unsavory directions, and it wasn’t long before voters started asking questions like, “Hey, why does my representative not pay taxes on the millions of yen he gets in his slush fund?” The Japan Communist Party newspaper Akahata, actually broke the story. Then there’s the Unification Church saga, brought to light after Abe Shinzo’s assassination in 2022. It turns out, a number of LDP members had cozy relationships with the cult, which made voters, incensed. It’s not every day that an assassination uncovers ties to a shadowy religious group, but welcome to Japanese politics.